It’s a comparison that hurts for Boston fans. Posted by Gary Washburn, of the Boston Globe, the “shotchart” of Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent and Max Strus during the conference final against the Celtics is a magnificent green, a sign of their superb address, when that of the Finals against the Celtics Nuggets is an ominous red…
The three “role players” of the Heat are thus much less effective in this series against Denver, the back line Vincent – Strus having also finished Game 4 with a sad 1/10 in shooting.
Since the start of the playoffs, and in particular in the conference final, Erik Spoelstra’s “role players” were however transfigured, Caleb Martin displaying, for example, an eFG% (percentage of success in shooting which takes into account the value of 3- points) exceptional at 72.7%! Duncan Robinson (69.4%), Gabe Vincent (60.6%) and Max Strus (53.6%) were also running at mind-blowing levels of skill, especially when you remember that the Heat were one of the worst teams in the league at 3. -points (34.4%, 27th) in the regular season…
In the final, Duncan Robinson remains very effective (70.8%) but Gabe Vincent (54.8%), Caleb Martin (43.5%) and Max Strus (24.2%) are completely back in line.
Jimmy Butler: ‘It’s because of them that we’ve won so many games, and I won’t let that faith in them crumble’
Of course, the difference is partly played in defense, the Nuggets having, unlike the Celtics, taken care never to give rhythm to the “role players” of the Heat, their impasses being in particular less conspicuous, but Caleb Martin and company also returned a bunch of complicated shots against Boston, including a very good 47% success rate on “very” or “quite” contested shots according to NBA.com statistics.
However, as in any sport of skill, there was also an element of luck, of pure success, and many analyzes concluded that Miami’s shooters dramatically “outperformed” in the playoffs, compared to their season production. regular. The question was how long it could last.
Obviously, we are witnessing in these Finals to a regression to the mean for Heat shooters, a classic statistical phenomenon, with values approaching the norm over time.
Caleb Martin and Max Strus now have trouble punishing “open” or “completely open” shots, only turning 32.5% success in these situations in Finals (13/40) when they were at 61 % success on these shots where the first defender is more than 120 centimeters away during the shot, in the conference final (51/84).
What push Jimmy Butler to change strategy, by reducing passes to his “role players”, now in difficulty to punish the aids, to take more shots himself?
“No, I won’t do that. I trust my guys too much. Their shots will fall in” he assures. “It’s thanks to them that we have won so many matches, and I won’t let that faith in them fade away. I will continue to play basketball the right way, trust my guys and we will deal with the result. »
| Shots | Bounces | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | GM | Minimum | Shots | 3 points | LF | Off | Def | Early | pd | bp | Int | CT | party | Points |
| Jimmy Butler | 64 | 33.4 | 53.9 | 35.0 | 85.0 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 22.9 |
| Bam Adebayo | 75 | 34.6 | 54.0 | 8.3 | 80.6 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 20.4 |
| Tyler Herro | 67 | 34.9 | 43.9 | 37.8 | 93.4 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 20.1 |
| Max Strus | 80 | 28.4 | 41.0 | 35.0 | 87.6 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 11.5 |
| Kyle Lowry | 55 | 31.2 | 40.4 | 34.5 | 85.9 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 11.2 |
| Victor Oladipo | 42 | 26.3 | 39.7 | 33.0 | 74.7 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 10.7 |
| Caleb Martin | 71 | 29.3 | 46.4 | 35.6 | 80.5 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 9.6 |
| Gabe Vincent | 68 | 25.9 | 40.2 | 33.4 | 87.2 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 9.4 |
| Kevin Love | 21 | 19.9 | 38.8 | 29.7 | 85.7 | 0.8 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 7.7 |
| Cody Zeller | 15 | 14.4 | 62.7 | 0.0 | 68.6 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 6.5 |
| Duncan Robinson | 42 | 16.5 | 37.1 | 32.8 | 90.6 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 6.4 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 30 | 11.7 | 49.6 | 29.7 | 72.7 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 5.7 |
| Nikola Jovic | 15 | 13.6 | 40.6 | 22.9 | 94.7 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 5.5 |
| Jamal Cain | 18 | 13.3 | 56.1 | 35.0 | 77.3 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 5.4 |
| Omer Yurtseven | 9 | 9.2 | 59.3 | 42.9 | 83.3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 4.4 |
| Haywood Highsmith | 54 | 18.0 | 43.1 | 33.9 | 46.4 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 4.4 |
| Udonis Haslem | 7 | 10.1 | 34.5 | 33.3 | 80.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 3.9 |
| Jamaree Bouyea | 4 | 16.3 | 46.2 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| Orlando Robinson | 31 | 13.7 | 52.8 | 0.0 | 71.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 3.7 |
| Dru Smith | 5 | 13.4 | 35.7 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
