After a few days off for All-Star Weekend, the NBA resumes tonight for the last part of the regular season marathon. A final part that will provide answers to several essential questions…
What consequences for Chris Paul’s injury?
Third offense (113.5 points scored on 100 possessions), 3rd defense (105.4 points conceded on 100 possessions), best team and by far in the decisive moments (+41.2 of “Net Rating” in the clutch), the Suns are clearly the solid formation of the season for the moment, with a collective mastery which allows them to find constant solutions on the offensive level, while tightening the screw as soon as necessary in defense.
At the head of the orchestra, Chris Paul realized a new great season, the “Point God” often seeming to manage day-to-day business for three quarters, before donning the boss’s costume.
His thumb injury is therefore likely to be a big problem for Monty Williams and his men. If Chris Paul returns to the regular season, it will probably be at the very end of it. Without him, the Suns will have to avoid falling over the last 24 meetings. With 6.5 games ahead of the Warriors in the standings, there is plenty to see, but the dynamic at the start of the “postseason” is important, and it is therefore a question of not building bad habits so that the reinstatement of Chris Paul is done as quickly and efficiently as possible.
When will we see the Nets’ new “Big Three”?
With the wounds and the refusal of the vaccination of Kyrie Irving, the “Big Three” Durant/Harden/Irving will therefore only have played 16 games together in Brooklyn. It sounds crazy, and this missed experience will no doubt feed the discussions for a long time. From now on, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will team up with Ben Simmons.
But when will we be able to see this new trio at work? Kevin Durant is still in the infirmary to treat his knee, Kyrie Irving still has to wait for New York to effectively lift its health restrictions for non-vaccinated people in order to play at home (in the current situation, he will only be able to play 8 of Brooklyn’s last 23 regular season games) while Ben Simmons needs to get back into shape, both physically and mentally.
Under these conditions, how many matches will this “Big Three” 2.0 from Brooklyn be able to play together before attacking the playoffs, or the “play-in” since the Nets are currently 8th in the East?
Even if the team, which has also recovered Seth Curry to compensate for the absence of Joe Harris, as well as Andre Drummond in the paint, can now seem more balanced, it will quickly be necessary to find a collective chemistry to face the other cadors from the east. And don’t just rely on individual talent in the playoffs.
What immediate impact for the duo James Harden – Joel Embiid?
It’s the same question in Philadelphia, where the exchange relieved everyone, by ending a melodrama that had lasted too long, but which may not allow them to aim for the title this season.
James Harden thus doesn’t arrive at the Sixers in his best physical shape, with hamstring issues dragging and slowing him down this season, where he hasn’t displayed the explosiveness of his best years. This is probably partly why Joel Embiid was cautious after the exchange, saying he was satisfied that the “drama” was over, but not sure he could really play for the title in the next playoffs.
The Cameroonian will indeed have to find his marks alongside James Harden. The latter brings additional threats to the Sixers on the pick-and-roll and in isolation, but Joel Embiid weighs especially on the low post defenses, when it causes double takes and shifts. So there’s a balance to be found to get the best out of both players, and allow Philadelphia to find consistent offensive solutions to really position themselves as a title contender. While not forgetting that Ben Simmons was one of the most versatile defensive weapons in the entire league, which James Harden clearly is not…
Obviously, it’s better to have the 2018 MVP in the squad than a Ben Simmons who didn’t want to play in Pennsylvania anyway, but is the former Rocket and Net title insurance? To have.
How far can the Grizzlies go?
We were worried during the last offseason, when we saw the Grizzlies multiply the exchanges in order to recover from the second rounds of the Draft. But the franchise has succeeded in its construction, with a dense workforce.
Sure, Ja Morant is at the center of the big form of Memphis, which is the team that has won the most games in the NBA (32) since November 27, tied with Phoenix. But around, between the explosion of Desmond Bane, the presence of Jaren Jackson Jr, the screens of Steven Adams, and the solidity of a package of “role players” (De’Anthony Melton, Brandon Clarke, Tyus Jones, Ziaire Williams …), there is a whole collective that must be manipulated.
With their ability to put pressure on their opponents in defense and impose a big rhythm in attack, Ja Morant and his teammates make most of their opponents suffer, who have a hard time containing these two factors. But can the Grizzlies really join the title race this season?
The answer may depend on their outside address, only 24th in the league, yet necessary to tear apart the opposing defenses and allow Ja Morant to attack the circle. Especially in place play.
Who will emerge from the fray in the East?
While a hierarchy is clearly visible in the West, the panorama of the East is on the other hand much more difficult to read. It must be said that between Miami, first with 38 wins for 21 losses (tied with Chicago) and Washington, 11th with 27 wins for 31 losses, there is only 10.5 games difference. It’s not negligible but it’s the gap between Phoenix, 1st in the West and Utah, 4th, or even between Utah and San Antonio, 11th.
Everything can therefore still change in this ultra-clustered conference since the first eight teams (Miami, Chicago, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Boston, Toronto and Brooklyn) have a legitimate chance of finishing in the lead.
Not to mention that behind, Charlotte, Atlanta, Washington and New York will fight for the last two places for the “play-in”, and given the low overall gap, with the idea of being able to have something to play in the playoffs, and not just to make up the numbers against the very best teams.
There could therefore be “upsets”… but also a lot of calculations during the very last meetings.
Can the Lakers still save their season?
There are 24 regular season games left in LeBron James and the Lakers. 24 games to try to re-enter the Western Conference Top 6, except Los Angeles (27 wins – 31 losses) is now six wins behind the Nuggets (33 wins – 25 losses) and Anthony Davis’ ankle has turned again …
California fans cling to the fact that Russell Westbrook has often shone in the second half of the season, where his constant energy makes the difference compared to that of his opponents, who tend to drop. But still it is necessary that his association with LeBron James, who has now been questioning nearly 60 games, finally takes place, and that Frank Vogel finds solid solutions in the long term, while the coach tinkers with a workforce that is lacking. clearly reliable shooters and/or solid defenders.
It’s hard to imagine the Lakers being able to really play for the title in this “postseason”, and a promotion to the conference semi-finals might already be a lesser evil, before major maneuvers next summer?
Do the Warriors have the weapons to reclaim their throne?
Three years after their last Finals, the Warriors are back in the heights of the league. Last summer’s recruiting was smart, and Golden State has had a great start to the season.
It’s been trickier lately, especially following the injury to Draymond Green. The defense was thus on its knees as the All-Star Break approached and Stephen Curry no longer displays its historical effectiveness in shooting. Klay Thompson is not yet clearly at his very best and as the defensive captain of the group will probably not return for a few weeks, the real potential of Golden State questions.
If the “Big Three” find their automatisms at the end of the regular season, and James Wiseman quickly slips into his totem role in the racket, the army of intelligent “role players” can legitimately allow the Warriors to dream of a fourth coronation since 2015. It would be quite a rebound.
Who will be the spoilsports of the playoffs?
Who will be the Hawks of the 2022 playoffs, namely this team that we did not really expect and which nevertheless goes very far? It’s always very difficult to predict, especially in such an open season.
In the East, there are thus almost eight or nine teams that can hope to reach the conference final, depending on their state of form and their clashes. Defending champions, the Bucks of Giannis Antetokounmpo are only in 5th place in their conference, without really managing to get started for the moment.
Troublemakers since the start of the season, can the Cavaliers confirm in the playoffs? Their defense is in place, their size is a problem for many people but their attack could play tricks on them in the trench wars of the “postseason”. It’s a bit the same for Boston, who can hope to achieve a superb turnaround, while many imagined this group to explode after the first part of the season. The defense of Ime Udoka’s men is thus well in place, but their attack is still not at the level of the best teams, and still relies far too much on the exploits of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
In the West, Memphis can be a great spoilsport, but if the club ends up in 3rd or even 2nd place in the conference, the Grizzlies will be expected anyway. Dallas, with a defense in place and a Luka Doncic at the top of his game, can on the other hand embody this surprise… unless Denver approaches the “postseason” with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back with Nikola Jokic. To beat everyone at the post?
Who will be voted MVP?
Like the race for the title, the race for the MVP seems particularly open this season, even with the injuries of Kevin Durant and now that of Chris Paul now.
Joel Embid, Nikola Jokic, DeMar DeRozan, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, Ja Morant, Devin Booker or Luka Doncic all have their chances, and it will probably be necessary to wait for the last weeks of competition to be fixed. It is indeed perhaps the final impression, as well as the collective ranking, which will make the difference.
At this point, the Cameroonian from the Sixers seems to be holding the rope and if he maintains this level and his team remains in the Top 3 of the Eastern Conference, he has a good chance of winning the Maurice Podoloff trophy.
Who will get the first choice of the next Draft?
The 2022 Draft may not be announced as strong (at least for the first places) as the 2021 Draft, but choosing in the Top 3 is never a bad thing when you are in reconstruction.
Since the NBA changed its attribution percentages to avoid tanking, there is no longer a need to have the worst record at the end of the campaign. But to make sure you have the best draft pick possible, finishing in the last five positions is necessary, since it offers almost a one in two chance of being in the Top 4.
In this little game, there shouldn’t be too much suspense about the five teams involved since Orlando (13-47), Detroit (13-45) and Houston (15-43) are almost guaranteed to be there.
Oklahoma City (18-40) is also on track to be there, as is Indiana (20-40) since the Pacers will finish the campaign in freewheel after the transfers of Caris LeVert and Domantas Sabonis. Five teams which will then be well placed to get their hands on the most courted “prospects”, such as Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero, Jaden Ivey and AJ Griffin, globally announced as the Top 5 of the next vintage.
