The 2022/23 NBA season kicks off next night, with two games: Celtics – Sixers (1:30 a.m.) and Warriors – Lakers (4:00 a.m.). For Golden State, it will be an opportunity to receive the championship rings.
Overall, this new season is placed on the theme of the return. Return to normal first in relation to Covid-19, the league’s health protocols having been greatly reduced, as have the vaccination policies which will allow all players, vaccinated or not, to play in New York, Los Angeles or Canada.
Back to the game also for many stars, excluded from the field last season for various reasons.
Kawhi Leonard, Zion Williamson, Jamal Murray, Ben Simmons, John Wall, James Wiseman, TJ Warren, Jonathan Isaac or even Michael Porter Jr. We have rarely seen so many major players return to the game after a white season (or almost in the case of MPJ). What upset the hierarchy established last year.
More than a dozen teams capable of playing for the title?
Besides, based on calculations by FiveThirtyEight, the race for the title has perhaps never been so open. Since 2015, the site has calculated before the season the probabilities of each team winning the Larry O’Brien trophy. On average, there are five teams with a real opportunity, that is to say with more than 5% chance (the bar from which Daryl Morey considers it necessary to go “all-in”) of the take away at the end of the season.
Except that this year, FiveThirtyEight estimates that 11 teams have at least a 5% chance of winning!
These are the Celtics (21%), Nuggets (13%), Grizzlies (8%), Sixers (7%), Warriors (6%), Heat (6%), Mavericks (6 %), Hawks (6%), Suns (5%), Raptors (5%) and Bucks (5%). Of course, this remains pure calculation, with the limits that implies, which places the Clippers at 3% and the Nets at 2%.
These calculations reflect above all the general state of the forces involved. Moreover, the favorites of FiveThirtyEight have assumed their status from 2016 to 2018, but that has not been the case since.
Last year, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks were thus favorites (23%) to their own succession, but it was the Warriors, with less than 1% chance of winning at the start of the campaign, who gave them succeeded. The main interest of this statistical analysis is to note that there is no big favorite for the title for this 2022/23 season and that, depending on the circumstances, many teams could get involved to the fight.
Returns between relief and ambition
These many returns could therefore be the key element of the different franchises on a collective level. On an individual level, the players are especially happy to find the parquet floors, their natural element.
“I am blessed to be in good health, blessed to be able to climb the stairs without a second thought”, explained Jamal Murrayback after a cruciate ligament rupture. “It’s been a long road. »
Same story with Kawhi Leonard, who suffered the same injury as the Nuggets point guard.
“I’ve been trying to improve myself and focus on my body in general for 14 months. Yes, I am enthusiastic. I’m tired of having to go through these training and rehabilitation sessions, of having to listen to the doctors and the staff – even though I will still have to do that in the future. »
James Wiseman, who missed the entire last season of the Warriors, as well as the playoffs and therefore the title, sums up the general feeling among the ghosts, deprived of what they love most.
“It was a difficult time for me, especially after this injury, because I love basketball so much”explains the young pivot of Golden State. “I just wanted to be on the pitch with my team. When I was not on the pitch it was very hard for me, but I held on. I acquired this resilience to continue. It’s in my DNA, and I will never give up, no matter how difficult the situation. »
