When we look at the state of the free agent market among starting pitchers right now, we notice that Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon are the three big names available. After all, they’re the only ones with the real potential to be a spinning ace and they’ve got a good track record.
In Rodon’s case, he only started to dominate in 2021, but after two straight years in the top-6 for the Cy Young Trophy, he has a strong selling point.
As for deGrom and Verlander, it’s not necessarily a secret: the two veterans want to sign a shorter pact, but in which they will receive a very high annual salary. The two will probably sign for (at least) $40M a year, but for a few years at most. A bit like Max Scherzer, basically.
For Rodon, for example, it’s a bit more complex. The gunner has just had two excellent seasons and, at almost 30 years old, we can imagine that he will sign a more conventional, therefore longer-term contract for a slightly lower annual salary.
However, according to Jon Heyman, Rodon would like to sign a pact which would bring him at least $35 million per year. We will go back to the slightly lower salary aspect.
In fact, it is not impossible that Rodon signs a contract similar to the older starters, but let’s say that his profile corresponds more to a long-term contract.
Thus, if we assume that the contract is for a period of five years, it would be a sum of $175 million that Rodon would like to pocket. And over six years, that would be $210 million.
Rodon is without a doubt a very good pitcher and he is certainly in the top-3 of the best starters on the market right now, but honestly, I have trouble seeing a team spending so much money to attract the left-hander in town. After all, he was in serious trouble until 2020 and he experienced left shoulder pain in 2021.
I expect him to sign a fairly lucrative contract and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets an annual salary of around $30 million, but if he wants to sign long term, I doubt he’ll get $35 M$. Unless the Angels or some such team are really desperate, of course.
