All Yankees fans dream of it. Everyone wants to see Aaron Judge be offered the contract that will allow him to wear the striped tunic for the next seven, eight or nine years. No one imagines it under other skies, wearing other colors. Everyone is certain that he will stay in New York. And yes, this season, we’ve all seen Aaron Judge kiss the “NY” logo on his shirt on camera like soccer players. From then on, it could not be otherwise: Judge will be a member of the Yankees for life.
However, it would be wise, dear Yankee fans, to come down to Earth a bit and prepare for any eventuality, even to prepare for the worst. I tell myself that if Freddie Freeman knew how to leave the Braves, Aaron Judge will know how to leave the Yankees. In addition, the stakes of the contract concerning Judge do not necessarily plead in favor of the club which will sign him.
27-36 is better than 31-40
Buy to buy, spend to spend. One moment is enough, everything has limits. If to err is human, the height of stupidity is to make the same mistake again and again. The Yankees and their bottomless pockets sometimes excel in this area.
The check that Aaron Judge will receive will be enormous, the duration of the agreement will be a minimum of seven seasons. But the “kid,” to be polite, is that offering a 31-year-old guy a contract for, say, nine seasons isn’t the same as offering it to someone 27. 27-36 vs. 31-40, are you with me?
Whichever team gets their hands on Judge will have to agree to pay a guy millions of dollars maybe for nothing on the “minimum” the last three years of his contract.
Mike Trout signed his long-term contract with the Angels (12 years old) when he was only 27 years old, smart. You sign the guy to his prime (even though Trout is constantly in his prime) and you release it when things aren’t going so well. Mookie Betts (10 years with the Dodgers) also signed at 27, as did Francisco Lindor with the Mets. Bryce Harper (13 with Philly) signed at 26 and Manny Machado (10 with San Diego) was also 26 when he signed.
So we end up with excellent guys at the dawn of their premiums and supposed to age gracefully. When they are old and unproductive, we can part with them easily, save our finances and not have the impression of finding ourselves permanently with a rock in our shoes. This kind of contract, I like them and the return is likely to be juicy. Don’t talk to me about a Fernando Tatis contract, please.
The problem with Aaron Judge is that in 2023 he will be 31, and offering a player of that age a long contract is a bit like shooting himself in the foot. I am thinking of the Tigers and Miguel Cabrera, the Mariners and Robinson Cano, the Angels and Albert Pujols. I am not convinced that The Judge will make us “copy and paste” of his 2022 season past 35 years.
Big guys like that get hurt: Between 2018 and 2020, Judge played 242 of the 384 scheduled games during that period, mostly due to wrist, shoulder, calf and rib cage injuries . Such a mass and its large grip zone will soon no longer be a mystery for pitchers, who will eventually understand how to throw the ball at it.
The calculation is not easy to do, but in my humble opinion, the chances of Aaron Judge being the go to player of his team from 37 years old are slim, so are the chances of him being named MVP. So why offer him all this money and such a long contract? Teams eyeing the Bronx giant need to think about that.
Right now, Aaron Judge is so good he deserves a big check, maybe even the biggest annual salary of any MLB player. A $200 million contract over the next five years would be good. We pay the player at fair value, and we don’t find ourselves stuck after five years paying a guy who spends his time in the infirmary or with statistics à la Joey Gallo.
I believe Aaron Judge would like to be a member of the Yankees and the franchise would like him to stay. But both sides certainly have financial bridges they won’t cross in pursuit of a possible deal.
